Question(04.01 LC) In Denver, Colorado there is a 10% probability of snow on a specific day. How was this probability most likely determined? On days with similar conditions as this day, it has snowed 10% of the time in Denver, Colorado. On this day each year, it snowed 10% of the time. On days with similar conditions as this day, it has snowed 10% of the time in Colorado. During this month, it snowed 10% of the days. The probability was determined randomly.
Studdy Solution
STEP 1
What is this asking?
How did weather experts figure out there's a 10% chance of snow in Denver today?
Watch out!
Don't mix up probabilities for the whole state of Colorado with probabilities just for Denver.
Also, remember that past weather patterns on similar days are the best predictors, not just any random day or even the same date in previous years.
STEP 2
1. Analyze the options
2. Eliminate incorrect options
STEP 3
Let's break down what each option really means.
Option 1 talks about similar days, which is a good clue!
Weather predictions are all about looking at past weather patterns on days with similar temperature, pressure, and humidity.
STEP 4
Option 2 focuses on the same date each year.
While historical data is useful, it's not as precise as looking at similar conditions.
Weather can vary a lot from year to year.
STEP 5
Option 3 broadens the scope to the entire state of Colorado.
Denver's weather might be totally different from other parts of the state, like the mountains or plains.
So, this isn't specific enough.
STEP 6
Option 4 looks at the whole month.
Again, this is too broad.
Weather changes a lot within a month!
STEP 7
Option 5 suggests the probability was determined randomly.
Nope! Weather forecasting is based on science and data, not random guesses.
STEP 8
We can **eliminate options 2, 3, 4, and 5** because they don't use the most relevant information.
Option 2 is about the same date, not similar conditions.
Option 3 is about all of Colorado, not just Denver.
Option 4 is about the whole month, which is too long of a time period.
Option 5 is just silly, probabilities aren't random!
STEP 9
This leaves us with **option 1**, which is all about looking at past weather patterns on similar days.
That's exactly how weather probabilities are calculated!
STEP 10
The most likely way the 10% probability was determined is by looking at days with similar conditions as this day, where it has snowed 10% of the time in Denver, Colorado.
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